2026-27 NBA MVP Watch: Early Predictions
Based on opening odds, last season's MVP voting, projected team ceilings, and the likely narrative arc of the season, here's how the 2026-27 NBA MVP race shapes up: Wembanyama, SGA, Doncic, and Jokic lead the pack.
How this ranking works
This isn't a retrospective list—it's a MVP projection for the 2026-27 season, set before tip-off The criteria are straightforward: opening odds, last season's MVP voting results, each team's ceiling, and narrative hurdles—like voter fatigue for a three-peat, the 65-game threshold, roster changes, and injury risk. By that standard, the top spot belongs to Wembanyama, not a mechanical repeat of last season's final ballot.
| Source | Snapshot | Methodology | Use case |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yahoo Sports 2027 MVP Odds | 2026-08 | Opening odds / implied probability | Primary projection basis |
| Vegas Odds NBA Futures | 2026-08 | Odds comparison | Cross-validation |
| NBA.com 2026 MVP | 2026 | Last season's MVP results | Reviewing the Baseline |
| AP MVP Voting | 2026 | Vote Distribution | Looking at the Contender Tiers |
| Basketball-Reference 2025-26 | 2026 | Basic Stats / Record | Statistical Fallback |
| Yahoo Way-Too-Early Awards | 2026-07 | Media Previews | Narrative Reference |
First, Let's Look at Last Season's Results
You're right—last season's storyline was all about SGA, Wemby, and Jokic. In the final 2025-26 MVP voting, SGA took it with 939 points and 83 first-place votes for a repeat; Jokic finished second with 634 points; Wembanyama was third with 569; and Doncic landed fourth with 250. The real question isn't "who was best last year," but "who's more likely to capture the voting narrative this season." Those aren't quite the same thing.
| Last Season's Rank | Player | Team | Total Points | First-place votes | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Thunder | 939 | 83 | Back-to-back MVP |
| 2 | Nikola Jokic | Nuggets | 634 | 10 | Top-two finish for the sixth straight year |
| 3 | Victor Wembanyama | Spurs | 569 | 5 | First career top-three finish |
| 4 | Luka Doncic | Lakers | 250 | 0 | High-volume scorer, but a tier below |
| 5 | Cade Cunningham | Pistons | 117 | 2 | Dark horse ticket pool |
Opening odds: Wemby in a tier of his own
Most opening-season boards put Wemby at the top. Yahoo's aggregate line came in roughly at Wembanyama +194, SGA +488, Luka +525, Jokic +669; another book had it closer to Wemby +200, SGA +300, Jokic +550, Luka +650. The exact numbers shift, but the order is basically consistent: Wemby alone at the top, with SGA / Luka / Jokic forming the second tier.
| Projected tiers | Player | Reference odds | What it roughly means |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | Victor Wembanyama | Around +194 to +200 | Opening-season front-runner |
| A | Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Around +300 to +488 | Chasing a third after going back-to-back |
| A | Luka Doncic | Around +525 to +650 | High scoring plus big-market narrative |
| A | Nikola Jokic | Around +550 to +669 | Scarily consistent, but the least fresh storyline |
| B | Jayson Tatum | Around +1300 | Winning record is within reach; personal spotlight depends on the situation |
| B | Anthony Edwards | Around +1567 to +2000 | High ceiling, but the team record needs to lift him up |
| B | Giannis Antetokounmpo | Approx. +1200 to +1900 | His individual talent is unquestioned, but the variables around him are huge |
| B | Jalen Brunson / Cade Cunningham | Approx. +1900 / +2400 | They'll need a strong record and a compelling narrative to gain momentum |
My 2026-27 MVP Prediction Rankings
If I had to cast a prediction ballot right now, I'd put Wembanyama first, SGA second, Luka third, and Jokic fourth. That's not because Jokic has gotten worse, but because the "Wemby ascension" narrative carries more weight in the voting room, SGA faces the three-peat hurdle, and Doncic becomes dangerous the moment the Lakers' record ticks up a bit more.
| Projected Rank | Player | Why I Rank Them Here |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Victor Wembanyama | Best odds; finished third in MVP voting last season plus DPOY; if the Spurs stay near the top two in the West, voters will find it easiest to ride that wave upward |
| 2 | Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Averaged 31.1 points last season, led his team to 64 wins, and won back-to-back MVPs; but a third straight MVP requires an extremely high bar, and even if he's still that good, the "let's pick someone else" factor will dilute his votes |
| 3 | Luka Doncic | Last season he led the league with 33.5 points per game, adding 8.3 assists and 7.7 rebounds; if the Lakers' record keeps climbing, he's the most likely candidate to surge from behind and take the top spot |
| 4 | Nikola Jokic | Last season he posted 27.7 / 12.9 / 10.7, still nearly unstoppable; the issue isn't the numbers, it's voter fatigue and the fact that "he's so consistent, consistency has become routine" |
| 5 | Jayson Tatum | If the Celtics climb back to the top tier of the league standings, Tatum will naturally return to the MVP conversation |
| 6 | Anthony Edwards | He has the individual explosiveness and the on-court charisma; what's missing is a season where his team truly dominates the league |
| 7 | Giannis Antetokounmpo | His individual performance has never been in question; it comes down to whether he can stay healthy and adapt to the new environment over the full season |
| 8 | Cade Cunningham | He already earned a first-place vote last season and carries strong dark-horse momentum; if the Pistons keep rising, he'll earn a seat at the main table |
| 9 | Jalen Brunson | As long as the Knicks keep winning, he'll stay hovering right at the edge of the ballot |
| 10 | Donovan Mitchell | Whenever the Cavaliers are strong in the regular season, he always works his way into the outer-circle discussion |
The Big Four, One by One
As I see it, the real MVP race comes down to four guys: Wemby, SGA, Luka, and Jokic. The rest have a shot, but they'd mostly need one of these four to stumble.
| Player | 2025-26 Key Stats | Biggest Case for MVP This Season | Biggest Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wembanyama | 25.0 points, 11.5 rebounds, 3.1 assists, 3.1 blocks in 64 games; finished third in MVP voting | His defensive impact is already on a freakish level; if he raises his offense even a notch, the media will be eager to hand him the trophy | Health and availability; he can't afford to brush against the 65-game threshold |
| SGA | 31.1 points, 6.6 assists, 4.3 rebounds on 55.3% shooting in 68 games; finished first in MVP voting | One of the steadiest on-ball engines in the league, and the Thunder's record gives him the sturdiest floor | Three-peat voter fatigue |
| Luka | 33.5 points, 8.3 assists, 7.7 rebounds in 64 games; finished fourth in MVP voting | Scoring volume and usage are the easiest way to build MVP buzz | Availability and defensive optics; the team needs a higher seed |
| Jokic | 27.7 points, 12.9 rebounds, 10.7 assists, 65 games, second in MVP voting | His numbers are absurdly complete; one solid push with his team puts him right back atop the conversation | The narrative isn't fresh, and voters tend to get fatigued |
Why I put SGA at No. 2
This isn't a knock on SGA. If anything, he might still be the most consistent superstar in the regular season. Last year he put up 31.1 points and 6.6 assists on 55.3% shooting across 68 games, the Thunder won 64 games, and his award was uncontroversial. But winning it a third straight year carries a much higher historical bar. Media previews keep hammering the same point: to become one of the few players since Larry Bird to win three straight MVPs, he has to make his case "without any debate." That's far harder than simply posting another 30-plus-point, 6-assist season.
Why Wembanyama looks most like the No. 1 right now
Wembanyama has two advantages. First, momentum is building. Last season he already finished third in MVP voting and won DPOY, which shows voters now treat him as a legitimate candidate, not some "he'll get it someday" placeholder. Second, his ceiling is plainly visible. 25.0 points, 11.5 rebounds, and 3.1 blocks per game are already absurd, but everyone senses he can go even higher. In a preseason projection, that "he can still grow" expectation is itself a vote.
Outside dark horses
Cade Cunningham, Anthony Edwards, and Jayson Tatum are the three most worth tracking in the dark-horse tier. Cade already cracked the MVP ballot last season, showing the media is willing to give a new name a look; Edwards' question is always whether his team's record is strong enough; Tatum is the classic case of "if the Celtics finish first, he's automatically back at the table." Giannis obviously can't be fully ruled out, but if you asked me to cast a ballot today, I'd put him in the second tier rather than among the top four favorites.
| Tier | Player | One-line take |
|---|---|---|
| S | Wembanyama | The smoothest MVP narrative entering the season |
| A | SGA, Luka, Jokic | Can jump right back into the mix once play actually starts |
| B | Tatum, Edwards, Giannis, Cade | Will need to kick the door open with record or health |
| C | Brunson, Mitchell, Brown | Will be in the conversation, but still a notch below the top tier |
| D | Other long-shot names on the odds board | More of a long-term lottery ticket than a seat at the main table |
Our site's prediction verdict
If I had to fill out a 2026-27 MVP prediction sheet today, here's my answer:Wembanyama first, SGA second, Luka third, Jokic fourthLast season's final rankings can serve as a reference, but for a new-season preview, the key question is who is most likely to combine "stats + record + narrative" all at once. Right now, Wembanyama looks like that guy.
Live rankings
Below is an embedded NBA 2025-2026 Top 100 players template. Even though the template still carries the old season label, the editorial direction of this piece is clearly aimed at 2026-2027 MVP predictions—you can drag the tiers yourself based on MVP odds.
互动体验：拖拽排位《NBA Top 100 2025》
NBA Top 100 2025
NBA Top 100 2025
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